Box Office Predictions: Can ‘Hunger Games: Catching Fire’ Top $175 Million?

Clearly there’s only one game in town this weekend, and that game is The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. I’ve thrown out a number at $176.3 million, and keep in mind the first version came in at $152.5 million for its opening weekend. My bump is predicated on this one being better (11 percentage points higher on RottenTomatoes as of publishing this post) and the natural sequel bump that should occur now that people have had a chance to check out the first edition on home video. I haven’t seen any tracking just yet, but you may want to factor that in as well. Personally, I dug it, so maybe that will get it another $100 bucks or so in ticket sales (don’t factor that in).

NOT-SO-NECESSARY TRIVIA: To my knowledge this will be the first time two films with a colon in the title have won back-to-back, though it almost happened in 2006 with X-Men: The Last Stand and Mission: Impossible III (they were separated by one weekend).

The other new wide release is Delivery Man. This one is a more complicated call, mostly because it’s being marketed as a comedy even though it’s really a drama. The Internship is a nice comp because the marketing looks similar, so clearly this won’t be a world-beater. I’m going with $14 million, I look forward to seeing the user consensus.

We’ll stay in the top ten for our final two predictions, the first of which is The Best Man Holiday. I’m only dipping it 45 percent, I don’t think it was all that front-loaded, plus it garnered an A+ CinemaScore, all but guaranteeing nice word-of-mouth. I’ve got it finishing in second place, at $16.6 million, with a drop that looks much like Think Like a Man.

Finally, we’ll end with Thor: The Dark World. This one is sinking like a stone, and The Hunger Games sequel is only going to exacerbate that problem. That 57 percent drop last weekend was blistering, but if history is any guide this weekend should be even worse. How bad are we talking? 64 percent, leaving Thor: The Dark World at $13.2 million. It’s still tracking $20 million above its predecessor through day 19, so it’s not as though the sky is falling, but Marvel and Paramount will again be looking to the overseas markets to bring them to profitability.

I now leave it in your gentle hands, predict now or forever hold your peace.

Current Record: 30-54-4 against the wisdom of crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • The Hunger Games: Catching FireN/A
  • Delivery ManN/A

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.

Laremy’s Box-Office Predictions for November 22 – November 24, 2013

  1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
    • $176.3 million
    • THEATERS: 4,100 ($43,000 per theater)
    • BUDGET: $130 million
  • The Best Man Holiday (Universal Pictures) – $16.6 million

Playing in 2,024 theaters ($8,202 avg.) / $17 million budget / 67%

  • Delivery Man (DreamWorks Pictures) – $14 million

Playing in 2,800 theaters ($5,000 avg.) / $26 million budget / 38%

  • Thor: The Dark World (Walt Disney Pictures) – $13.2 million

Playing in 3,841 theaters ($3,437 avg.) / $170 million budget / 66%

  • Last Vegas (CBS Films) – $6 million

Playing in 3,237 theaters ($1,854 avg.) / $28 million budget / 45%

  • Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Paramount Pictures) – $5.2 million

Playing in 3,190 theaters ($1,630 avg.) / $15 million budget / 61%

  • Free Birds (Relativity Media) – $4.9 million

Playing in 3,000 theaters ($1,633 avg.) / $55 million budget / 18%

  • 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – $3.6 million

Playing in 1,700 theaters ($2,118 avg.) / 96%

  • Ender’s Game (Summit Entertainment) – $3.2 million

Playing in 2,800 theaters ($1,143 avg.) / $110 million budget / 62%

  1. Gravity (Warner Bros.) – $3.1 million

Playing in 1,800 theaters ($1,722 avg.) / $100 million budget / 97%


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *