Box Office Predictions: ‘Think Like a Man Too’ Ready for #1, Eastwood’s ‘Jersey Boys’ Don’t Stand a Chance

Think Like a Man Too will grab the victory this weekend, even with a smallish 2,000 theaters. That’s based on tracking, sequel precedence, a largely under-served minority, and extremely weak opening competition – it’s all working for Think Like a Man Too. As of this writing, there are approximately zero reviews on RottenTomatoes, but I thought it was a perfectly palatable little comedy. My call is $38.3 million and I think there’s only upward mobility. The weekend in general is strong, historically, so you’d think the money has to go somewhere. But where?

It can’t be headed Jersey Boys‘ way, unless you feel like tracking isn’t any good at measuring adults. Not a bad theory, but are young people really answering their phones to respond to pollsters? The film is also rotten on RT, well deserved, and even with a clear theater count advantage it has almost no hope this weekend. The last Clint Eastwood directed film to open above $20 million? Trick question. It’s never happened, though to be fair I didn’t adjust for inflation. My prediction is $15.8 million, but it’s going to be very close in either direction.

22 Jump Street will certainly fall hard after last weekend, that’s the nature of being front-loaded. The film features that required ‘A’ CinemaScore and I’m only dipping it 47 percent. The first one fell 34 percent, but c’mon, that was clearly just excellent word-of-mouth on a completely unknown quantity. This one is known, and thus can’t hold in the same lovely manner. Still, on that $50 million budget they’ll be happy to add another $30.3 million, which would put it over $100 million already. The prospects look about the same internationally, so this one is chugging along to a tidy $250 million worldwide, or slightly better than Neighbors (which remains a true mystery earner).

Finally, How to Train Your Dragon 2. As a family title, it will remain strong, but not quite strong enough to take the silver medal. Still, that $29.7 million is a razor-thin margin, could go either way. Sneaky question, is this under-performing? Thankfully, they spent less money this time around, mostly because the first version was in development hell with directorial changes.

I turn it over to you, beloved crowd, I look forward to going 3-0-1 against you again this week. I’m back!

Current Record: 27-62-4 against the wisdom of the crowds

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Think Like a Man Too$36 million
  • Jersey Boys$14.1 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.


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